The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates that hot weather is likely to increase future heat-related mortality ( IPCC 2007a). Recently, heat-related mortality has become a matter of growing public health concern, especially because of climate change ( Kovats and Hajat 2008 O’Neill and Ebi 2009).
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In fact, heat waves are the biggest cause of weather-related fatalities in many cities, responsible for more deaths annually than any other form of extreme weather.
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2009), and to other health outcomes such as emergency department visits and hospitalizations ( Knowlton et al. 2006), to cause-specific mortality ( Barnett 2007 Hertel et al. A number of epidemiological studies have examined high temperatures in relation to total nonaccidental deaths ( McMichael et al. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement.Ĭonclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality.Įxposure to extreme heat has been associated with both increased mortality and morbidity. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature–mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010.ĭata synthesis: Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria.
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Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios.ĭata sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change.